On Tuesday, a high European official presented a wide face to reorganize the continent, trying to fill a void while President Trump retired from supporting Ukraine and put pressure on Europe to spend more for his defense.
The official, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, the executive branch of the European Union, has established a large but vague proposal to increase the expenditure for European defense from a lot of 800 billion euros, or about $ 843 billion, including a loan program of € 150 billion to pay more weapons and technology.
The plans report an important political turn in a tenuous moment, since European leaders take the requests of Mr. Trump.
While the EU has long been seen as a project built for peace and open trade, the world has abruptly changed around it. “We are in an era of rearmament,” said Mrs. Von der Leyen Tuesday from Brussels in a media declaration.
Trump has moved away from Ukraine and towards Russia in recent weeks. The turn intensified this week, when it suspended the delivery of all US military aid in Ukraine, according to high administration officials.
The realignment of America has left Europe racing to help Ukraine in the short term and to ensure that it is ready to defend itself from a more aggressive long -term Russia.
The options proposed by Mrs. von der Leyen mainly concern loose budgetary rules and rules. In the end, the decisions on the opportunity to increase military spending will be taken by EU Member States, whose finances are already under pressure.
But with Ukraine who faces a critical deficiency of weapons in his war against Russia, the times are increasingly urgent. Mrs. Von der Leyen revealed her proposal in view of a meeting of the heads of state and the government from all 27 nations members of the block in Brussels on Thursday.
A new defense fund
Perhaps the newest part of the proposal is the 150 billion euro program to grant loans related to defense from the EU to the Member States. Funds could be used to pay a series of investments: air defense and missile, artillery, drones and anti-drone systems, cybertechnologies and infrastructure projects.
Funding for the program would be collected in the capital markets, according to high officials of the European Commission. To configure it, the EU would be based on an emergency provision that allows financial assistance to the Member States in exceptional circumstances. The plan should have been approved for just over the majority of the European Council, a relatively low barrier.
Loans would be designed to open the way to large investments that do not overlap. The money would be assigned to the Member States by the Commission based on the application, the officials said.
“He will help Member States reunite the question and buy together,” said Mrs. Von der Leyen. “With this equipment, Member States can enormously intensify their support for Ukraine”.
Space for budgets
Mrs. Von der Leyen had already announced that she would propose to extend defense investments from rigid deficit rules of the European Union.
The expenditure for European defense has risen by 30 percent since 2021, but remains well below the levels that officials affirm that they are necessary for Europe to become truly independent of the United States. And the budget limitations are already pungent.
EU countries should maintain their deficits – the gap between how much they spend and how much money they carry through taxes and commissions – up to 3 % of their economic production, while limiting their debt. Otherwise, it can cause fines. Eight countries, including Belgium and Poland, are already increasing the limits or are seriously violated, as well as France.
Having said that, Europe has tried to find a way to allow individual nations to spend more in defense without making drastic cuts elsewhere, for example for health care or social services.
Mrs. Von der Leyen suggested Tuesday that a budget “escape clause” would be a central part of her plan.
He suggested that if European nations used space to increase the expenses of another 1.5 percent of the gross domestic product – almost doubled it for just under 2 % now – this would be added to around 650 billion euros in four years.
But even if the European Council approves the escape clause, it is not clear if the individual states would decide to spend extra money and increase their deficits.
Reddirizing of capital
Other programs that the EU has already in progress could be redirected to the defense, suggested Mrs. Von der Leyen.
He proposed to allow Member States to use what is called “cohesion” financing – which usually helps the poorest Member States to pay for economic development – to pay for military spending.
Another option is to use the European investment bank to help finance the accumulation of defense. The bank has already increased its loans to security projects, although it is somehow limited by its loan criteria.
European officials have asked for changes to the rules that would allow the bank to invest in purely military projects, which cannot currently do.
What is not in the proposal
If Mrs. Von der Leyen’s proposal had a general theme, it was that it can be done quickly within the EU framework. But the proposal stopped short of more ambitious ideas and there were no largely expected details.
Defense analysts have looked to see how the EU could work with Great Britain and Norway, which are not in the blockade. Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister of Great Britain, promised this week the formation of a “coalition of the provisions” to support Ukraine. But there was nothing in the proposal on a wider collaboration.
In the same way, it is not clear what specific help is coming for Ukraine, compared to what will be used to strengthen European defense in a wider way. EU countries spoke of putting together a package for Ukrainian financial support that could be worth up to € 20 billion, but Mrs. Von der Leyen did not talk about those floors on Tuesday.
Having said that, the new proposal is most likely a starting point. More details could happen and after Thursday, and even more when the commission will present a document in defense in March.
“It is a beginning, it is a good sign, but it did not go great as most of us would have expected,” said Maria Martitisiute, political analyst of the European political center focused on defense. “Now he is not revealing all his cards.”