Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has dealt devastating blows to Hamas: It has killed top Hamas leaders and thousands of militants, pummeled the militant group’s tunnel network, and undermined its ability to threaten Israel with rocket fire .
When Hamas launched its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, it hoped to trigger a regional war that would draw in its allies and lead to Israel’s destruction. Instead, he was left to fight Israel almost entirely alone. Its allies have been decimated in Lebanon, overthrown in Syria and weakened in Iran. The Houthis in Yemen have only managed to launch occasional rocket and drone attacks, most of which Israel has intercepted.
Despite its isolation, however, Hamas remains the dominant Palestinian power in Gaza even after 15 months of Israeli bombardment, dominating refugee camps and refusing to surrender. While many Palestinians have criticized the group’s decision to carry out the October 2023 attack – sparking a war that has killed tens of thousands of Gazans and reduced towns to rubble – the group has faced relatively little popular unrest.
Hamas celebrated the provisional ceasefire agreement announced on Wednesday as an “achievement”, but its future role in Gaza remains uncertain.
The agreement provides for an eventual “permanent cessation of military operations and hostilities,” but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly suggested he will resume attacking Hamas after some hostages held by the militants are released.
However, if the multi-phase deal is fully implemented, it could open the door for Hamas to rebuild its iron grip on Gaza, or at least allow it to maintain an influential role in the territory. Analysts linked to Hamas believe that Israel will struggle to resume the war despite international pressure, and that Hamas will play a key role in Gaza’s future.
“Hamas will be present in every detail in Gaza,” said Ibrahim Madhoun, an analyst close to the militant group. “Trying to get around Hamas will be like hiding your head in the sand.”
Madhoun acknowledged that Hamas’ military wing, the Qassam Brigades, had suffered losses, but said it was still “on solid ground” and had recruited new people to replace those killed. Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state, said this week that American officials assessed that Hamas brought in nearly as many new fighters here as it lost in the war.
But if Israel decides to return to war, it could continue to weaken the group.
Resuming war would not only be a disaster for the Palestinian people, but also for Hamas, said Tamer Qarmout, a professor of public policy at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.
In such a scenario, Qarmout said, Israel could find itself moving toward occupying Gaza, which could “cut off Hamas but antagonize all other citizens.”