After more than 15 months of nearly non-stop fighting in Gaza, diplomats trying to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas expressed cautious hope Tuesday that a deal may finally be within reach.
But that optimism has been tempered by uncertainty over whether both sides would ultimately agree, what details might still change and the experience of past months in which ceasefire talks have repeatedly failed.
“We believe we are in the final stages, but until we have an announcement, there will be no announcement,” Majed al-Ansari, spokesman for the Foreign Ministry of one of the mediating countries, Qatar, told reporters on Tuesday.
Here’s what we know about the potential ceasefire agreement.
What is the status of the talks?
US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said Tuesday that Israel and Hamas are “on the verge” of agreeing to a deal to suspend fighting in Gaza and release hostages held there in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
He and diplomats from other mediating countries, including Qatar and Egypt, failed for months to reach a breakthrough in talks, but have made rapid progress in recent weeks.
The mediators “managed to downplay many of the disagreements between both sides,” al-Ansari said, adding that they focused “on the final details of reaching an agreement.”
“On Sunday, the United States, Qatar and Egypt presented a final proposal,” Blinken said. “The ball is now in Hamas’ court.”
Officials from both the Israeli government and Hamas have hinted that they are ready to move forward if the other side gives its consent.
A Hamas official said on Monday that a deal is possible in the next few days as long as Israel does not suddenly change its position. On Tuesday, an Israeli official said Israel was ready to conclude the deal and was waiting for Hamas to make a decision.
Hamas officials negotiating in Qatar must obtain the consent of the group’s remaining military commanders in Gaza for the deal. Among these commanders is Mohammad Sinwar, whose brother led the group before he was killed by Israel in September. Due to the need to keep your location secret, communicating with them can be difficult and cause delays.
It is not yet clear whether Sinwar has expressed his position regarding the ceasefire proposal to Hamas leaders in Qatar.
What does the proposal say?
Given the sensitive and ongoing negotiations, officials were cautious about describing the proposed deal except in general terms.
The deal’s structure was heavily inspired by previous proposals discussed in May and July, said a diplomat familiar with the talks, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the volatile negotiations. Those proposals envisaged a three-stage ceasefire in which Israeli troops would gradually withdraw from Gaza, while Hamas would release hostages in exchange for Palestinians jailed by Israel.
Israeli officials hope to secure the release of at least some of the approximately 100 hostages held in Gaza since the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel in October 2023 that started the war. Israeli authorities believe around 35 of the remaining hostages are dead.
Hamas leaders want to end the Israeli military campaign, ensure the entry of reconstruction materials and obtain the freedom of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.
During the first phase of the proposed ceasefire – which would last about six weeks – Hamas will release 33 named hostages, most of whom Israel believes are alive, said an Israeli official, who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks. Israel is willing to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange, the official said, but the number depends on how many hostages are still alive.
Why have the talks moved quickly in recent weeks?
Some officials suggested that the change in U.S. administrations, expected on Jan. 20, would put pressure on Israel and Hamas to speed up their decision-making after months of delay.
Incoming US President Donald J. Trump has warned that there will be “hell to pay” unless the hostages are freed before he becomes president. Steve Witkoff, his chosen Middle East envoy, also made trips to Qatar and Israel.
The talks have also gained momentum since Israel reached a separate ceasefire agreement with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which began firing rockets into Israel soon after the October 2023 Hamas-led attack. Battered badly by the growing conflict with Israel, Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire with Israel in November, an agreement that helped isolate Hamas.